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REPORT BANCHE ITALIANE: chi si merita la fiducia?

Analisi delle banche quotate a Piazza Affari confrontate come leva finanziaria, Texas Ratio, rapporto sofferenze/prestiti totali, rapporto copertura dei NPL e Tier1.

In questi giorni si è fatto un gran parlare delle banche italiane e della loro solidità. A seguito della vicenda “Popolare di Vicenza”, si è aperta una vera e propria “caccia alle streghe” che ha visto protagoniste (in negativo) gli istituti di credito quotati a Milano. Nei giorni scorsi già ho portato a vostra conoscenza le performance delle banche italiane sui mercati, performance che mettono a nudo il sentiment profondamente negativo sul settore. Occorre però fare un po’ di chiarezza.

La caccia alle streghe generalmente colpisce tutto un settore, generando forti correzioni, ma anche delle potenziali occasioni di acquisto.

Non vi parlerò in questo post di indicatori come il price earning o il price book value. Sono sicuramente dei parametri importanti per valutare una società che oggi, però ci fornirebbero dei segnali poco significativi, visto che tali ratio sarebbero teoricamente molto invitanti. Ma in questo momento sono ben altri i fattori che condizionano le quotazioni. In primis è la solidità patrimoniale e la situazione delle sofferenze bancarie.

Ho quindi creato una slide, che ritengo molto utile proprio per fotografare nel migliore dei modi quali sono le banche italiane più solide (e quindi quelle che possono rappresentare una buona “scommessa” per il futuro) e quelle che invece rappresentano ancora un pericolo.

Eccovi un rapido excursus sui parametri utilizzati nell’analisi. Nella slide troverete anche qualche banca estera quotata a Milano. L’ho lasciata perché rappresenta pur sempre un interessante metro di paragone.

a) Texas Ratio: rapporto tra crediti lordi deteriorati e somma del patrimonio tangibile più gli accantonamenti. Un valore inferiore a 100 è indice di solidità (e più è basso, meglio è). Discorso opposto se il valore è maggiore di 100.
b) Leva Finanziaria: non credo necessiti di particolari delucidazioni. Ricordo solo la definizione di “leva finanziaria” data proprio dalla Consob. Attraverso l’utilizzo della leva finanziaria (o “leverage”) un soggetto ha la possibilità di acquistare o vendere attività finanziarie per un ammontare superiore al capitale posseduto e, conseguentemente, di beneficiare di un rendimento potenziale maggiore rispetto a quello derivante da un investimento diretto nel sottostante e, di converso, di esporsi al rischio di perdite molto significative.
c) Rapporto NPL (sofferenze bancarie)/totale prestiti: serve per capire la qualità del credito nelle varie banche
d) RLL/NPL: rappresenta il rapporto di copertura in bilancio delle sofferenze stesse. Più è alto, più significa che la banca ha avuto un atteggiamento prudente in bilancio e quindi espone l’istituto a meno rischi. Esempio: una banca che ha 100 milioni di crediti deteriorati e li svaluta a 40, ha un tasso di copertura del 60%. Ovvio che un tasso di copertura elevato indica un atteggiamento prudente della banca: perché riduce la propria esposizione, incassando subito le perdite, su quel credito. Ridurre il tasso di copertura significa invece aumentare i rischi potenziali.
e) Core TIER 1: si intende la componente primaria del capitale di una banca composta dal capitale azionario e riserve di bilancio provenienti da utili non distribuiti al netto delle imposte.

Banche-italiane-report-solidità

L’analisi mette le banche in ordine di esposizione alla leva finanziaria.

Ma non è solo la leva un elemento pericoloso da monitorare. Le caselle più critiche sono quelle in giallo. Ovviamente, le banche che hanno più caselle gialle, sono quelle potenzialmente più pericolose.

Non voglio commentare più di tanto la slide, lasciando ai gentili lettori i relativi commenti nell’area dedicata, anche se è abbastanza semplice capire chi fornisce garanzie sufficienti e chi invece è quantomeno rivedibile.

Fonte: qui

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